Almost half of Americans (45%) will experience funding shortfalls in retirement, with single females most at risk, according to a new report from Morningstar Retirement.

More than half of single females (55%) are expected to run short of money compared with 41% of couples and 40% of single males, the report found.

The report also uncovered significant racial differences, with Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black Americans at greater risk of funding shortfalls than non-Hispanic whites and other non-Hispanics. More than 3 in 5 Hispanic Americans (61%) and almost as many non-Hispanic Black Americans (59%) are projected to run out of money compared with 40% for other groups.

“These results are largely a function of the racial wealth gap, specifically the disparities in retirement account balances,” the authors said in the report released on July 30.

There were generational differences too. Baby boomers and Generation X, the oldest cohorts, are more likely to experience shortfalls than millennials and Gen Z. About 52% of baby boomers and 47% of Gen Xers are at risk, whereas only 44% of millennials and 37% of Gen Z are.

“The results for baby boomers and Gen X are in large part already determined by their current level of retirement savings, as members of these generations do not have much time left to save for retirement,” the authors said.

The report found that those with fewer years left to save in a workplace retirement savings plan faced a greater likelihood of running out of money. Almost 3 in 5 Americans no longer participating in retirement plans (57%) are projected to run short of money. Among those with 20 or more years of future participation in plans, only 21% are expected to fall short.

There was one nugget of good news. Public-sector workers are the most prepared for retirement, with only 29% projected to experience retirement shortfalls. Among workers in the worst-prepared industry — wholesale and retail trade — 55% are expected to fall short.

The report is based on a new simulation model that Morningstar developed to assess potential retirement income inadequacy among American workers. The Morningstar Model of U.S. Retirement Outcomes simulates retirement income adequacy for a representative sample of all U.S. households across 1,000 independent scenarios, Morningstar said.

Morningstar claims the model differs from many other models used for public policy research on retirement topics because it incorporates a “stochastic decumulation model” that it says “allows for explicit modeling of the most important post-retirement considerations” rather than “simply computing a replacement rate at retirement and then assuming those above a certain threshold will have a successful retirement.”

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