Prime Minister Says He’s Sticking to UK ‘Triple Lock’ Pensions Guarantee
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he’s committed to raising the UK state pension in line with the highest of inflation, wages or 2.5%, even though the longstanding “triple lock” policy is proving increasingly expensive.
“Of course the government is committed to its policy on the triple lock,” Sunak told ITV on Wednesday.
The most recent data on inflation — prices gained 6.8% in July — and for wages, which rose 7.8% in the three months through June, suggest that keeping the triple lock will be expensive for a second year running. Sunak said he’s not uncomfortable with a rise in pensions of that magnitude.
If wage growth remains at its current pace, pensions will have to rise by 8.2%, at an additional annual cost of £10 billion ($12.8 billion), online investment service Interactive Investor said Tuesday. The Office for Budget Responsibility projects that last year’s increase will have added some £14 billion to this year’s pensions expenditure, bringing the total to £124 billion.
The triple lock formula uses earnings data for the three months through July, due to be published next month, and inflation data for the year to September, due in October.
Despite the costs, there are electoral considerations for Sunak, whose Conservative Party enjoys disproportional support among older voters. The Tories trail Labour by about 20 points in national polls, and any path to victory will involve hanging on to the votes of pensioners, who are also traditionally more reliable when it comes to turning out to vote.
Sunak must hold a general election in January 2025 at the latest.
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