UK pensioners could be in line for another major state pension windfall in 2024, after the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) wage data showed UK wages increased at a record rate between April and June.

Thanks to the Conservative Party’s triple lock pledge, higher-than-expected growth in salaries could translate into a more generous government settlement for over-65s. It comes after the full rate of the state pension went up 10.1% in April 2023 as a result of the UK’s inflation crisis – a rise of almost £1,000.

While the triple lock was a headline manifesto commitment for the party throughout the 2010s, it has not been a cast-iron guarantee since the Covid-19 pandemic. The policy was suspended for the 2022/23 financial year by Boris Johnson’s government, while Liz Truss also threw it into doubt during her short tenure as Prime Minister last autumn.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt eventually pushed the policy through after Truss was ousted. Both Rishi Sunak’s government and the Labour Party have committed to implementing the pledge next spring.

But how does the triple lock work – and how much more money could pensioners get next spring?

What is the pensions triple lock?

The pensions triple lock was a policy brought in by David Cameron’s Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010 and has been a key policy for Tory administrations ever since. It governs how much state pensions rise by and essentially guarantees that pensioners will never see their income fall.

As its name suggests, the triple lock has three things against which pension rises are guaranteed:

• Inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) each September)

• The average wage increase (between May and July each year)

• 2.5%

State pensions will go up by whichever of these three things is highest, with all three mechanisms having been used since the policy’s introduction.

The triple lock was suspended for a year in September 2021 as the government feared Covid-19 furlough would lead to wage increases of 8.8% (incidentally, this turned out to be a much lower percentage than the record CPI inflation figure in October 2022). With people returning to full-time work when the policy began to be withdrawn, it was felt wages could spike.

It meant the triple lock became a double lock for the 2022/23 financial year – guaranteeing pensions against inflation or the 2.5% figure. This broke a 2019 Conservative manifesto promise to keep the triple lock in place for the duration of the Boris Johnson government’s term in office. In March 2022, then-Department for Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey confirmed the return of the triple lock for 2023/24.

Despite Liz Truss putting this commitment into doubt last autumn, the triple lock was reinstated by Rishi Sunak’s administration and returned in April 2023. It is now expected to return in April 2024 as both the Conservatives and Labour have said they will keep the policy in place.

How much more money will pensioners get?

Pensioners received a 10.1% uplift in April 2023 thanks to the record levels of inflation seen last September.

It meant the full amount of the state pension rose £18.70 a week (£972.40 a year) to £203.85. While this increase was welcomed at the time, it came after a year in which pensioners had seen just a 3.1% uplift in a year during which inflation rapidly climbed into double-digits.

Based on the latest inflation forecasts and wage growth data, it would seem pensioners can expect a similarly sized increase in April 2024. Inflation is expected to fall sharply over the second half of 2023, meaning September’s CPI figure could be lower than that for wage growth. Analysis of the latest ONS wage growth data by investment platform Interactive Investor suggests pensioners could be in line for an 8.2% uplift assuming the high rate of growth continues into July (the May to July ONS figures are used by the government to determine the wage rate considered in triple lock calculations).

Assuming its estimates are correct, it would mean the state pension could rise to £220.56 a week – a £16.71 increase on current rates. Overall, pensioners would be in line to get £11,469 per year (an £869 uplift).

But this hike would still mean some pensioners continue to struggle with their living standards, Interactive Investor’s head of pensions and savings, Alice Guy, said: “The rising state pension is great news for pensioners, especially the millions that have no other income apart from the state pension.

“Despite recent increases, the UK state pension really only provides a basic income in retirement and those who want to have more than a basic standard of living will need to save separately in a workplace or private pension.”

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