US. Recession, stagflation risks top concerns for managers
As the U.S. stock market officially entered a bear market, investor gloom continues to grow as global profit expectations and fears of stagflation reach the highest point since 2008, according to the results of Bank of America’s June Global Fund Manager Survey.
Of the 300 surveyed fund managers, which oversee a total of $834 billion in assets, expectations of global growth were at a net -73% in June, down from a net -72% in May and reaching a new lowest level in the history of the survey.
A global recession tops the list as the biggest tail risk for managers at 25% (previously 27% in May), followed by hawkish central bank rate increases at 23% (previously 31% in May), inflation at 22% (up from 18% in May), a systemic credit event at 9% (up from 7% in May), the Russia-Ukraine conflict at 6% (previously 10% in May), COVID-19 at 3% (up from 1% in May) and cryptocurrencies at 1% (no result in April).
Also, a net 72% among survey respondents expect global profits to decline over the next month, the most since October 2008 and up from a net 66% in May.
When asked how they see the global economy trending over the next 12 months, 83% said they expect stagflation (below-trend growth and above-trend inflation), which was up from 77% in May and represented the highest percentage since June 2008.
Also according to the survey, investors’ macro concerns caused them to stop forecasting further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, leading to a month-over-month fall in cash levels to 5.6% in June from 6.1% in May. Cash levels had surged in that month from 5.5% in April, the highest level since September 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attack.
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