The Bulgarian population is ageing and this will cause major problems in the payment of pensions in the coming years. The share of people over the age of 65 relative to the total population will increase from about 21% in 2019 to 31% in 2070. This is written in the Country’s Convergence Programme, which was recently sent to the European Commission, informs Trud daily.

The Bulgarian pension system faces serious demographic challenges, the document says. Forecasts from the European statistical office Eurostat show that the population of the country will decrease and at the same time its age structure will deteriorate. In 2019, there were 36 people aged 20 to 64 per 100 people aged between 20 and 64, more than 65 years old. But as a result of an ageing population in 2070, there will be 60 pensioners per 100 working-age people.

In parallel with the increase in the share of pensioners in the population the number of working Bulgarians will decrease. By 2070, this reduction will be about 34%, the document says. It turns out that when today’s young people reach old age, there will be no one to work to fill the Treasury and ensure decent pensions.

There are problems on the labour market at the moment, but over the years they will deepen, the Convergence Programme makes it clear. Last year there was an increase in the ratio between the number of pensioners and the number of insured citizens.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the related negative processes on the labour market have had a particularly pronounced impact on the number of Bulgarian workers or their employers who pay insurance contributions to the Treasury. After a nearly 10-year period of annual growth, in 2020 the average number of people who paid social security contributions plummeted by more than 100,000. These are people who lost their jobs because of the pandemic.

According to forecasts, by 2024 the number of insured workers will increase. The reason for this will be the recovery of the economy and the growth in employment rate. However, by 2027the number of insured will decrease, the prognoses show. The reason for this will be the decrease in the working-age population, leading to a plunge in the number of employed.

It turns out that even if the business is doing well and there are factories which export their products there will be a deficit of  workers.

The population of the country will melt down from the current nearly 6.9 million to approximately 5 million people in 2070, according to projections of the European statistical office Eurostat. That’s down nearly 28%. But the number of young people will decrease much faster than that of pensioners.

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