Major disruption that could last until the New Year – that’s the view of one French political analyst on what will happen once ‘unlimited’ strikes begin in France on December 5th. The French government and unions are squaring up for a battle as mass strike action is declared over plans to reform the French pension system.

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The first declared strike day is December 5th, but many unions say they are planning to stay out longer, for weeks if necessary. How long it will last and who will blink first are the questions that dominate the discussion, with some saying that things could become as bad as 1995 In that year – the very first year of Jacques Chirac’s presidency – the government tried to push through a pension reform.

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The reform, which would do away with certain special regimes and increase the retirement age some public sector employees, became wildly unpopular. But the government had not foreseen the stir it would cause. The French would have none of it. Hordes of people took to the streets in mass-protests of sizes unseen since the May 1968 movement. After weeks of organised walk-outs, the government dropped the plan. Since then, no French government has dared to radically overhaul the country’s complex retirement system.

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Then came Emmanuel Macron. “This is a very difficult situation for Macron because he has put so much political weight into this reform. Going back on it would be an enormous loss,” said Bruno Cautres, a political scientist who researches political behaviour in France at the think tanks CNRS and CEVIPOF and teaches at the Paris Campus of the Sciences Po University. “An explosive movement” Since the workers on the Parisian public transport system (RATP) called for the December 5th strike, one union after another announced that they too will join the walk-out – and that they intend to stay out if need be.

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