Will Negative Rates Finally Kill Pensions?
Economists once thought that negative interest rates were impossible. Not only are they possible, but they may hasten the end of a dying business practice.
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I have written in this space before about the repercussions of other countries issuing bonds with negative yields. The past decade has conclusively proved that negative interest rates are not only possible but likely to remain part of the international financial landscape. Negative interest rates are now entrenched in many parts of Europe, as well as Japan. By mid-2019, bonds with negative yields had surpassed $17 trillion worldwide. Some economists have expressed concern that countries that let interest rates go negative will have a hard time returning to positive rates in the future even as conditions improve.
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As for the United States, there is no particular mechanism that prevents our interest rates from going negative, as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan observed in August. Investors are earning less than they used to from U.S. government debt – approximately 1.8% on 10-year Treasuries, compared to an average of 3.5% over the past 20 years – but they are still getting back more than they invested. Yet the economic circumstances look precarious from certain angles.
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The Fed has lowered rates three times in 2019. The central bank seems unlikely to raise them again anytime soon, though recent remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell suggest more cuts are not imminent either. This year’s cuts do not mean negative rates are inevitable; far from it.
But they do mean the central bank will have a limited number of further cuts available in a future situation where it needs to stimulate the economy. As I’ve said in the past, keeping rates low now is no guarantee that interest rates will go negative. But it increases the odds that they could. If negative interest rates do arrive in the U.S., they will affect our lives in a variety of ways. One of the less obvious results, but one that would have a major impact on many Americans’ retirement plans, is that negative rates could be the fatal blow to the defined benefit retirement plan.
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