People on the planet are getting older. Developed countries are already struggling to deal with rapidly aging populations. According to demographic information released recently by the United Nations, by 2050 one of every six people alive will be over 65. To consider this phenomenon, let’s analyze the populations of three large, industrialized countries — the U.S., Japan and China. The life expectancy of Americans in the year 1900 was only about 47. Today it’s about 79, an increase of 32 years in just over a century. (Drug overdoses and a climbing suicide rate recently reduced U.S. life expectancy numbers, the first ever decline.)

A remarkable increase in life expectancy occurred in the early part of the 20th century, when major public health gains followed advances like indoor plumbing, the expansion of electricity and improved medical care. Life expectancy increased from 47 in 1900 to age 59 by 1930, an increase of almost 25% in only three decades. If we add another 12 years to our current life expectancy, the average American will live to age 91 by 2050. With the world’s longest life expectancy and a low fertility rate, Japan is the canary in the aging coal mine.

Twenty-eight percent of Japan’s population is over 65, compared to about 16% in the U.S. and 9% in China. Some 60% of Japanese men ages 65 to 69 are still working; in the U.S. that number is only 38%. There is talk of raising Japan’s eligibility age for its national pension system from 65 to 70. Americans can currently begin taking Social Security benefits at age 62, if they so choose.

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