Brazil’s real leads Latam FX gains on pension reform hopes

Brazil’s real firmed against the dollar on Tuesday, with investors anticipating tougher government proposals on pension reform, while the losses among some Latin American currencies reversed after comments by U.S. President Donald Trump on trade.

Financial markets are hoping that new Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s government will take steps to make deeper cuts to the country’s fiscal deficit than envisaged under the previous government.

Bolsonaro, who was elected in October and has been an outspoken proponent of shrinking the deficit, is meeting with his cabinet later on Tuesday.

The real was up to 0.6 percent firmer on Tuesday, not far from more than a two-month peak seen in Monday’s session.

Luis Felipe Laudísio, a trader at Renascença, said any news of Bolsonaro’s pension reform proposal being tougher than that of his predecessor, Michel Temer, should be seen as positive, if confirmed.

The Bovespa equity benchmark dipped 0.3 percent. The index slipped further away from an all-time peak hit on Friday, dragged down by weakness among financials.

Brazilian airline Gol, however, was the top loser, with its preferred shares falling 3.2 percent after it released its preliminary fourth-quarter results.

Meanwhile, Trump said in a tweet that talks with China were going very well.

“China, trade, and Fed. These three risk factors are critical to the price action, especially in high-beta currencies,” Mark McCormick, North American head of FX strategy at TD Securities, wrote in a note.

Mexico’s peso, considered by some investors to be a weather vane of trade sentiment, erased early losses after Trump’s tweet and gained 0.3 percent. Its trading volumes were about 200 percent of their average over the past week, based on Refinitiv Eikon data, after the tweet.

Chile’s peso was initially weaker, as were prices of copper, a metal sensitive to global trade and Chile’s top export. The currency jumped 0.4 percent following Trump’s tweet, while local stocks traded 0.3 percent higher.

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