January 2024

Pension Systems (Un)Sustainability and Fiscal Constraints: A Comparative Analysis

By Michael Wickens  Using an overlapping generations model, two new indicators of public pension system sustainability are proposed: the pension space, which measures the capacity to pay for pension expenditures out of labour taxation, and the pension space exhaustion probability reflecting demographic uncertainties. These measures reveal that the pension spaces of advanced economies are strikingly different. Most nations have little scope to further finance pensions out of labour income  taxation over the next thirty years. There is no one-size-fits-all solution....

The Fiscal Cost of Aging in Belgium: Pensions and Healthcare

By Jean-Jacques Hallaert Belgium faces a fiscal consolidation challenge at a time when the fiscal cost of aging—primarily related to pension and health outlays—is mounting. Pension spending will increase relatively fast unless a combination of measures related to pension generosity and retirement eligibility are put in place. Potential efficiency gains are large in the health sector and could absorb part of the fiscal and reorganization costs related to an aging population. Source SSRN

The Four Headwinds of Retirement and How to Combat Them

Dipping your toes in the fresh waters of an exotic beach. Enjoying a gorgeous sunset and your favorite drink as you relax on the back patio. Getting lost in a painting because you have all the time in the world to perfect every brushstroke. Spending more time with family and friends. These are the types of things you dream of indulging in when you retire. You don’t picture worrying about how much money you have in the bank or trying...

September 2023

Net zero and ageing populations risk higher taxes, warns City bank

The transition to net zero and pressures from ageing populations risk pushing up the tax burden, a City bank has warned. Analysts at BNP Paribas, a French multinational bank, said that spending demands from several economic shifts meant states would likely be permanently bigger. As a result, Marcelo Carvalho, the global head of economics, said: “I think it’s very unlikely that the tax burden is going to go down meaningfully anywhere in the world. “It’s more likely that it either stays where...

The Labor Market Effects of Facilitating Social Security Contributions Under Part-Time Employment Contracts: Evidence from Colombia

By Brenda Samaniego de la Parra, Andrea Otero-Cortés & Leonardo Morales  We examine the impact of reducing rigidities caused by regulation on labor demand in a context with high informality. Using employer–employee matched administrative records and household survey data, we estimate the effects of a reform that eliminated a wedge in firms' regulatory costs of employing workers on different work schedules in Colombia, reducing the relative costs of formal parttime employment. We find that the reform increased the probability of entering...

July 2023

Strengthening Retirement Income Security: Fairer Tax Rules and More Options Needed

By Alexandre Laurin & George Turpie  Simple changes to tax rules can improve retirement security for Canadians, as well as make the retirement system more equitable among different classes of savers, and more efficient at managing longevity risks for capital decumulation. This E-Brief provides a discussion of needed retirement-related tax changes impacting members of capital accumulation plans, such as RRSPs and defined-contribution (DC) plans, divided into the accumulation and decumulation phases. Among the key tax changes recommended for the accumulation phase:...

June 2023

Pension Systems (Un)Sustainability and Fiscal Constraints: A Comparative Analysis

By Burkhard Heer, Vito Polito & Michael Wickens  Using an overlapping generations model, two new indicators of public pension system sustainability are proposed: the pension space, which measures the capacity to pay for pension expenditures out of labour taxation, and the pension space exhaustion probability reflecting demographic uncertainties. These measures reveal that the pension spaces of advanced economies are strikingly different. Most nations have little scope to further finance pensions out of labour income taxation over the next thirty years....

May 2023

Macron promises €2 billion in tax cuts for French middle class

As part of his continued attempt to move past his government’s contentious pensions reform, French President Emmanuel Macron has announced two billion euros of tax cuts for the middle class before the end of his term. In a televised interview Monday evening, Macron said he wants to “concentrate” two billion euros of tax cuts on people “who work hard, who want to raise their children well and who today, because the cost of living has increased… have trouble making ends...

April 2023

UK. Should pensions tax relief be used to fund care costs?

Getting more people into work and keeping them there for longer was a thread that ran throughout last month’s Spring Budget. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt focused on childcare, state benefit reform and elements of the pensions tax relief system, such as the abolition of the lifetime allowance (LTA). But there was nothing more to add on the funding of social care. Last year’s Autumn Statement, which confirmed the proposed £86,000 cap on social care costs in England would be delayed by...

Aging, Inadequacy, and Fiscal Constraint: The Case of Thailand

By Phitawat Poonpolkul, Ponpoje Porapakkarm & Nada Wasi We use an overlapping generations model to study the challenge in developing countries with a large informal sector and aging populations. We use Thailand as a case study and incorporate its labor market structure and its public pension system into the calibrated model. Unlike developed countries, workers in developing countries commonly transit from the formal sector to the informal sector, which can be in the early stage of their working life. This...