August 2017

Here’s how China’s Ageing will Narrow Income Gaps in West

In recent years politicians and thinkers in the developed world have found themselves struggling to explain three trends that have gripped advanced economies: the long-term fall in real interest rates adjusted for inflation, the fall in workers’ real wages, and the sharp rise in inequality between rich and poor. In truth, these three trends are easy enough to understand if you take a global, rather than a national or regional view. They can all be explained by the economic rise of...

A Lost Generation but Renewed Hope: Oregon’s Pension Crisis and the Road to Reform

By Scott Andrew Shepard (Independent) Like a number of other states, Oregon has been hampered in its pension reform efforts since 1996 by its state supreme court’s embrace of the “California Rule,” a doctrine arising, in Oregon’s case, from a misunderstanding of federal Contract Clause precedent. Under the misreading, states such as Oregon have been restricted from reducing pension benefits for government employees once they have been hired, even for work that lies in the future and may not be...

A Lost Generation but Renewed Hope: Oregon's Pension Crisis and the Road to Reform

By Scott Andrew Shepard (Independent) Like a number of other states, Oregon has been hampered in its pension reform efforts since 1996 by its state supreme court’s embrace of the “California Rule,” a doctrine arising, in Oregon’s case, from a misunderstanding of federal Contract Clause precedent. Under the misreading, states such as Oregon have been restricted from reducing pension benefits for government employees once they have been hired, even for work that lies in the future and may not be...

The Role of Self-Control on Retirement Preparedness of US Households

By Kyoung Tae Kim (University of Alabama), Jae Min Lee (Minnesota State University) & Eunice O. Hong (Sungshin Women's University) We examine the self-control problems of U.S households and their effects on households’ retirement preparedness based on the Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis. Using the 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances dataset, the level of retirement adequacy was estimated with income replacement ratio (IRR), and only 42% of households were adequately prepared for retirement. Results from logistic regression analysis indicated that households with...

July 2017

PEPP – Towards a Harmonized European Legislative Framework for Personal Pensions

By Hans van Meerten & Sebastiaan Niels Hooghiemstra LL.M (Utrecht University) In the last couple of years questions arose how the PEPP should ideally be regulated and the European Commission and various interest groups, till now, have not found a solution for all possible problems in developing a common regulatory framework yet. For that purpose, this Report focused on how the PEPP could ideally be regulated. It discussed the PEPP and the PPP, how PEPPs as a ‘wrapper product’ should be...

June 2017

What Rates of Productivity Growth Would Be Required to Offset the Effects of Population Aging? A Study of Twenty Industrialised Countries

By Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer (McMaster University) A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialised countries throughout the world and will continue well into the future. We provide a framework for isolating the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP, employ the framework in calculations for twenty OECD countries, and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. We consider also some labour-related changes that might provide offsets,...

Assessing the Demand for Micropensions Among India's Poor

By Olivia S. Mitchell (University of Pennsylvania) & Anita Mukherjee (University of Wisconsin) Using new data from a field experiment in India, we test hypotheses about micropension design in a poor population. We elicit demand for the basic micropension in addition to variants with different minimum withdrawal ages, government match rates, and options for lump sum withdrawal. A majority (80%) of respondents report interest in the micropension, and the amount they are willing to contribute would be enough to cover...

Assessing the Demand for Micropensions Among India’s Poor

By Olivia S. Mitchell (University of Pennsylvania) & Anita Mukherjee (University of Wisconsin) Using new data from a field experiment in India, we test hypotheses about micropension design in a poor population. We elicit demand for the basic micropension in addition to variants with different minimum withdrawal ages, government match rates, and options for lump sum withdrawal. A majority (80%) of respondents report interest in the micropension, and the amount they are willing to contribute would be enough to cover...

May 2017

Fiscal Challenges of Population Aging in Brazil

By Alfredo Cuevas, Izabela Karpowicz & Mauricio Soto (International Monetary Fund); Carlos Mulas-Granados (Government of the Kingdom of Spain)  In recent decades, population has been aging fast in Brazil while old age pensions and health related spending have increased. As the population ages, the spending trend threaten to reach unsustainable levels absent reforms. Increasing the retirement age is key, but by itself will not provide sufficient savings to close the pension system financing gap, and reforms reducing replacement rates are...

Interactions between Financial Incentives and Health in the Early Retirement Decision

By Pilar Garcia-Gomez & Eddy van Doorslaer (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Titus J. Galama (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) & Ángel López Nicolás (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) We present a theory of the relation between health and retirement that generates testable predictions regarding the interaction of health, wealth and financial incentives in retirement decisions. The theory predicts (i) that wealthier individuals (compared to poorer individuals) are more likely to retire for health reasons (affordability proposition), and (ii) that health problems...