April 2019

Fair Pensions

By Ilja Boelaars (University of Chicago) & Dirk Broeders (De Nederlandsche Bank; Maastricht University) This paper examines the allocation of market risk in a general class of collective pension arrangements: Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) schemes. In a CDC scheme participants collectively share funding risk through benefit level adjustments. There is a concern that, if not well designed, CDC schemes are unfair and will lead to an unintended redistribution of wealth between participants and, in particular, between generations. We define a...

March 2019

The phony retirement crisis

By Andrew Biggs Contrary to the alarms, household savings are growing. But government plans are underfunded. Lawmakers are taking action to deal with the “retirement crisis.” More than 200 House Democrats are sponsoring a bill to expand Social Security benefits, funded by a dramatic increase in taxes. California, Connecticut, Illinois and Oregon have established state-run retirement plans for private sector-workers, which many progressives hope will supplant 401(k)s. But there is no retirement crisis among either today’s retirees or tomorrow’s. Eight in 10...

Early Access to Pension Savings : International Experience and Lessons Learnt

By Fiona Stewart, Himanshi Jain & Will Sandbrook The objectives of a well-designed pension system are poverty reduction in old age and income smoothing throughout an individuals' lifetime. Over the last thirty years, changing demographic trends have caused a shift from 'pay as you go' and occupational defined benefit (DB) schemes - where the obligation for paying for retirement income is with the state and employers - to defined contribution (DC) schemes, where the obligation to save for retirement rests...

Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan

By Minchung Hsu (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)) & Tomoaki Yamada (Meiji University - School of Commerce) We construct a transition analysis based on a general equilibrium life‐cycle model to investigate the effects of aging, and we evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative influence of aging. In particular, we analyze reforms of insurance benefits and tax financing tools that were recently the focus of a great amount of attention and debate in Japan because of...

February 2019

Pension Policy and the Financial System

By DAVID S. SCHARFSTEIN This paper examines the effect of pension policy on the structure of financial systems around the world. In particular, I explore the hypothesis that policies that promote pension savings also promote the development of capital markets. I present a model that endogenizes the extent to which savings are intermediated through banks or capital markets, and derive implications for corporate finance, household finance, banking, and the size of the financial sector. I then present a...

The Economic Effects of the UK Government’s Proposed Brexit Deal

By Arno Hantzsche (National Institute of Economic and Social Research; University of Nottingham), Amit Kara (Bank of England - Monetary Policy Committee), Garry Young (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) The focus of our analysis is on how the UK government's proposed Brexit deal is likely to affect the economy. First, we assess how trade, migration, foreign direct investment, productivity and contributions to the EU budget might change by reviewing current proposals against historical evidence. Second, we use the...

The Economic Effects of the UK Government's Proposed Brexit Deal

By Arno Hantzsche (National Institute of Economic and Social Research; University of Nottingham), Amit Kara (Bank of England - Monetary Policy Committee), Garry Young (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) The focus of our analysis is on how the UK government's proposed Brexit deal is likely to affect the economy. First, we assess how trade, migration, foreign direct investment, productivity and contributions to the EU budget might change by reviewing current proposals against historical evidence. Second, we use the...

January 2019

Retirement Savings Adequacy in U.S. Defined Contribution Plans

By Francisco Gomes (London Business School), Kenton Hoyem (Financial Engines, Inc.), Wei-Yin Hu (Financial Engines, Inc.), Enrichetta Ravina (Kellogg School of Management) We evaluate retirement savings adequacy in the U.S. using a large panel dataset comprising the contribution rates, salary, tenure, account value, plan features and asset allocations of more than 300 thousand US workers with a 401(k) account. Our simulations account for medical expenditure, longevity, and investment risks, and realistically model the likelihood of withdrawals due to hardship, job...

The Course of Income Inequality As a Cohort Ages into Old-Age

By Thomas L. Hungerford (National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI); Independent)Several researchers have shown that income inequality of a cohort increases as the cohort ages. The various studies examining cohort income inequality use a variety of data, measures, and methods. Is the U.S. experience documented in other studies due to potential biases due to data, measures and/or methods? This study examines cohort income inequality using nationally representative longitudinal data and a variety of inequality measures to follow a large...

Social Security Reforms and the Changing Retirement Behavior in Sweden

By Marten Palme (Stockholm University - Department of Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics), Lisa Laun (IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation)We show how the economic incentives to remain in the labor force induced by Sweden’s public old-age pension system and disability insurance program have changed between 1980 and 2015. Based on earnings histories for different hypothetical individuals corresponding to groups by gender and educational attainments we calculate the following measures: the replacement rate (RR), the social...