July 2017

Liquidity and Solvency in Pay-as-You-Go Defined Contribution Pension Schemes: A Continuous OLG Sustainability Framework

By Jennifer Alonso-García (University of New South Wales) & Pierre Devolder (Catholic University of Louvain) Notional Defined Contribution pension schemes are defined contribution plans which are pay-as-you-go financed. From a design viewpoint, the countries where NDCs have been implemented cannot guarantee sustainability due to the choice of notional return paid to the contributions and the indexation rate paid to pensions. We study how the scheme should be designed to achieve liquidity and solvency with a limited set of assumptions in...

Role of Social Security in Explaining the Rate of Saving Disparity: A Historical Study of New Zealand versus Singapore: 1960 – 1993

By Debasis Bandyopadhyay & Vera M. Chung (University of Auckland) This paper provides evidence to argue that the difference in the social security schemes of two countries may help explain the disparity in their saving rates. We examine the argument by limiting our focus to a comparison of New Zealand and Singapore for the period 1960 – 1993. We choose the period to avoid the potential impact of the major restructuring of the New Zealand Superannuation since 1994 toward a...

Policy Reflection: Letter of Credit Usage by Defined Benefit Pension Plans in Canada

By Norma L. Nielson & Peggy L. Hedges (University of Calgary) There is an argument to be made for letting corporations hold off on contributing to their employees’ defined benefit pension plans, as long as there is a guarantee the cash will come eventually. That is the reason that provincial governments began allowing creditworthy companies to instead provide a letter of credit, backed by a Canadian bank, guaranteeing the cash deposit, and secured by the company’s line of credit or...

A Study on the Prospects and Problems of Unorganised Labours in India

By Ravindra B.K. (Alliance University), Pradeep M. D. & T. Ramjani Sab (Srinivas Institute of Management Studies) India comprises 43.7 crore people working with the skill in the residual sector as unorganized labours. Around 24.6 core engage in agriculture, 4.4 crore in construction and remaining people in the manufacturing and service sectors. This sector faces eventual deficiencies in regulations over employment, remuneration pattern, poor employer and employee relationship and casual work culture. Informal sector covers large number of workers from...

June 2017

Automatic Enrollment and Choices of Pension Plans: An Experimental Study in Brazil

By Antonio Gualberto Pereira (Universidade Federal da Bahia) & Luís Eduardo Afonso (University of Sao Paulo) One alternative presented in the literature to increase adhesion to pension plans is to modify the default of choices from opt in (to adhere to the plan) to opt out (leave the plan), a nudge typical of the libertarian paternalism (Kahneman, 2002). An experimental design was adopted, adapted from a tool by Hey (2007). The research was made available with the assistance of Questionpro©...

What Rates of Productivity Growth Would Be Required to Offset the Effects of Population Aging? A Study of Twenty Industrialised Countries

By Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer (McMaster University) A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialised countries throughout the world and will continue well into the future. We provide a framework for isolating the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP, employ the framework in calculations for twenty OECD countries, and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. We consider also some labour-related changes that might provide offsets,...

Public Pension Reform and the Takings Clause

By Michael B. Kent Jr. (Campbell University) Of the many current issues facing state and local governments, perhaps one of the most pressing is public pension reform. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are nearly 4,000 public pension systems in the United States, the vast majority (3,742) of which are administered by local governments. As of 2014, these systems had more than 19,000,000 members and more than 9,000,000 beneficiaries receiving periodic payments. But many of these systems are in...

May 2017

Fiscal Challenges of Population Aging in Brazil

By Alfredo Cuevas, Izabela Karpowicz & Mauricio Soto (International Monetary Fund); Carlos Mulas-Granados (Government of the Kingdom of Spain)  In recent decades, population has been aging fast in Brazil while old age pensions and health related spending have increased. As the population ages, the spending trend threaten to reach unsustainable levels absent reforms. Increasing the retirement age is key, but by itself will not provide sufficient savings to close the pension system financing gap, and reforms reducing replacement rates are...

Pension Reform Options in Chile: Some Tradeoffs

By Marika Santoro (International Monetary Fund) In this paper, we study the macroeconomic impact of pension reform options in Chile, using a dynamic general equilibrium model. The main reform proposal considers raising contributions (employer side) and vehicle additional proceeds to individual accounts and to increase the support of solidarity pensions. We model increased contributions as a labor tax. We find the impact of this reform on GDP to be negative in the near to the medium run, with GDP declining...

The Impact of Partisanship in the Era of Retrenchment. Insights from Quantitative Welfare State Research

By Frank Bandau (University of Bamberg) Does government partisanship matter when it comes to the size and generosity of the welfare state? While the answer to this question is clearly positive for the ‘golden age’, there is so far no clear-cut answer with regard to the subsequent era of welfare retrenchment. This is by no means due to a lack of research. Quite to the contrary, a substantial number of macro-quantitative studies published over the past 15 years have addressed...